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CapitalPanda | How the war in Ukraine affects capital markets

Latest news

Read current news from the financial markets and expert articles from our analyst.

How the war in Ukraine affects capital markets

Crude Oil

There were immediate concerns about the world oil supply when the Russian invasion of Ukraine started. An embargo on Russian exports to Western nations was one of the main issues. US President Joe Biden announced stringent new rules limiting Russian oil exports in a statement on March 8, 2022.

Similar proposals came from the European Union and the United Kingdom. The government of the United Kingdom adopted plans to gradually stop importing Russian crude oil by the end of 2022. The program was to affect 8% of the United Kingdom's oil usage, but on March 8, 2022, Prime Minister Boris Johnson praised it.

However, price settled down, went under US$100 to US$82-US$90 range.

Because the government of China periodically closed major cities and areas to stop the coronavirus from spreading, the country's energy consumption, which has been a major factor in the price of oil over the last two decades, has decreased significantly.

Meny

USD

Posilnenie americk├ęho dol├íru vo─Źi ostatn├Żm men├ím je ─Ćal┼í├ş faktor spojen├Ż s klesan├şm cien ropy. Aj ke─Ć samotn├í cena ropy zost├íva nezmenen├í, ke─Ć┼że sa obchoduje v dol├íroch, ─żudia a biznisy v krajin├ích so slab┼íou menou bud├║ musie┼ą za palivo plati┼ą viac. D├┤sledkom toho je, ┼że dopyt po komodite bude klesa┼ą a t├Żm sa zn├ş┼żi aj jej dol├írov├í cena.

Efekty vojny boli zn├íme mnoh├Żm ve─żk├Żm, mal├Żm a exotick├Żm FX obchodn├şkom. Infl├ícia sa v krajin├ích ako Spojen├ę kr├í─żovstvo, Spojen├ę ┼ít├íty a ─Źlensk├ę ┼ít├íty E├Ü dostala na najvy┼í┼íiu ├║rove┼ł za desa┼ąro─Źia. ─îas┼ą tohto n├írastu sa d├í prip├şsa┼ą zv├Ż┼íeniu ceny komod├şt.

Americk├Ż FED zaviedol prv├Żkr├ít od roku 2018 s├ęriu zv├Ż┼íen├ş ├║rokov├Żch sadzieb, v snahe znovu dosiahnu┼ą cenov├║ stabilitu.

Niektor├ş tvrdia, ┼że americk├Ż dol├ír uk├ízal na FX trhu silu ÔÇ×aj napriekÔÇť, ale ja som toho n├ízoru, ┼że to bolo ÔÇ×hlavne v─ĆakaÔÇť stabiliz├íci├ş geopolitickej situ├ície vo v├Żchodnej Eur├│pe v mesiacoch, ktor├ę nasledovali. To, ┼że FED viackr├ít zv├Ż┼íil ├║rokov├ę sadzby a jeho o─Źak├ívan├í agres├şvna strat├ęgia do roku 2023, boli hlavn├Żmi d├┤vodmi.

Aby bojoval proti infl├ícii, ktor├║ ─Źiasto─Źne sp├┤sobila vojna na Ukrajine, FED zv├Ż┼íil cie─żov├║ sadzbu feder├ílnych fondov z 0 % na 3,25 % od marca do konca septembra.

RUB

V porovnan├ş s in├Żmi akt├şvami bol rube─ż najviac v├í┼żne zasiahnut├Ż. Po inv├ízii na Ukrajinu bolo na Rusko uvalen├Żch nieko─żko sankci├ş, ktor├Żch cie─żom bolo u┼íkodi┼ą ruskej finan─Źnej a ekonomickej v├Żkonnosti. Rube─ż hne─Ć uk├ízal dlhodob├║ slabos┼ą oproti nieko─żk├Żm hlavn├Żm FX men├ím.

Rusk├ę in┼ítit├║cie podnikli ve─ża krokov, aby zmiernili tento dopad. Po prv├ę, Rusko prik├ízalo, aby boli platby za zemn├Ż plyn roben├ę v rub─żoch. Po druh├ę, aby obnovili cenov├║ stabilitu, Rusk├í centr├ílna banka zv├Ż┼íila dom├ícu ├║rokov├║ sadzbu na 20 %. A nakoniec, jeden gram zlata mal hodnotu 5000 RUB, ke─Ć k nemu bola t├íto mena zafixovan├í.

Rube─ż sa v t├Ż┼żd┼łoch po krokoch vl├ídy a centr├ílnej banky zo str├ít spam├Ątal a vyk├ízal vo─Źi hlavn├Żm FX men├ím zisky. V t├Ż┼żdni kon─Źiacom 14. marca v├Żmenn├Ż kurz USD/RUB r├Żchlo spadol o 22,7 %.* Cez leto v├Żmenn├Ż kurz USD/RUB spadol e┼íte viac a dlh┼í├ş ─Źas sa obchodoval v├Żrazne pod predvojnov├Żmi hodnotami.

Bud├║cnos┼ą

Je ┼ąa┼żk├ę odhadn├║┼ą, ako inv├ízia skon─Ź├ş, ale teraz to vyzer├í na status quo. Vojna mala signifikantn├Ż dopad na glob├ílne obchodovanie a s┼ąa┼żila n├ívrat do norm├ílu po ┼íoku z pand├ęmie COVID-19. V┼íetky slabosti svetovej ekonomiky a medzin├írodn├ęho syst├ęmu obchodovania, ktor├ę nemali ─Źas sa po pand├ęmii zotavi┼ą, vy┼íli kv├┤li konfliktu na Ukrajine na povrch.

Naru┼íenia dod├ívate─żsk├ęho re┼ąazca a ┼íokuj├║ce ceny energi├ş s├║ i na─Ćalej d├┤vodom zvy┼íovania cien jedla a komod├şt na svetovom trhu, ─Ź├şm sa spoma─żuje produkcia a obchodn├Ż rast. Experti vyjadrili obavy z hladovania a stagfl├ície kv├┤li tejto tendencii. D├┤sledkom by bolo, ┼że predpove─Ć MMF o ÔÇ×┼ąa┼żk├Żch ─Źasoch a neistej bud├║cnostiÔÇť by bola celkom re├ílna, ak by sa svetu nepodarilo n├íjs┼ą inovat├şvne rie┼íenia s├║─Źasnej situ├ície.

S├║hrnn├║ spr├ívu pripravil Jozo Peri─ç, analytik spolo─Źnosti CapitalPanda

* Minul├í v├Żkonnos┼ą nie je z├írukou bud├║cich v├Żsledkov.

The content of this material constitutes marketing communication and should not be considered as any type of investment advice and/or investment research and/or a solicitation for any transactions. This material was prepared for informational/educational purposes only and does not imply an obligation to perform investment transactions nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. BCM Begin Capital Markets Cy Ltd and its relevant persons including affiliates, agents, directors, or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness, or completeness of any information/data provided by third parties and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the said information/data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

CapitalPanda | Czech National Bank left rates unchanged
09.08.2022

Czech National Bank left rates unchanged

Interest rates were left unchanged by the CNB Bank Board. Thus, the discount rate is still at 6%, the Lombard rate is still at 8%, and the two-week repo rate (2W repo rate) is still at 7%.The interest...